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Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles produce nearly 5x more global warming pollution than official figures show, according to a new analysis.

Growing Discrepancy Between Official and Real-World Emissions

Data shows that PHEVs emit just 19% lower CO₂ than conventional gas and diesel cars, according to research conducted by a non-profit group. This contrasts significantly with lab estimates, which assumed a 75% reduction in emissions.

Researchers examined data from onboard energy use meters of 800,000 vehicles sold in the EU between 2021 and 2023. They found that real-world CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times higher than official estimates, increased from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Real-world emissions are rising, while official figures are falling,” stated a lead analyst participating in the report. “That discrepancy is growing and poses a serious problem. As a result, PHEVs emit nearly as heavily as gasoline vehicles.”

Primary Factors Behind the Discrepancy

Analysts attributed most of the gap to inflated estimates of the “electric driving share” – the percentage of miles driven in electric power compared to total distance. The team found that only 27% of travel was completed in EV mode, whereas lab estimates assumed over four-fifths.

Even, when running in EV mode, pollution levels were significantly higher than official projections. This happened because electric motors were insufficiently powerful enough to function independently, resulting to engines using gasoline for almost a third of the distance completed in EV mode.

Regulatory and Financial Implications

Based on calculations, the underestimation of PHEV CO2 output allowed several major automaker companies to escape more than €5bn in fines between 2021 and 2023, by falsely simplifying compliance with EU fleet-average CO₂ standards.

Additionally, drivers of PHEVs could pay approximately €500 extra per year in operating expenses than would be estimated under lab conditions.

“The bold claims that manufacturers like to make about their plug-in hybrid vehicles are clearly far from the truth,” commented a automotive expert. “Buyers are being duped into believing that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the planet and saving money. In reality, PHEVs are little improved than regular gas and diesel cars in terms of energy use, CO₂ emissions, and running costs.”

Political Discussion and Industry Lobbying

Plug-in hybrid cars have recently been drawn back into political discussions as automakers have pressed the European Union to relax CO₂ standards. A proposed ban on new combustion engine cars in 2035 has faced heavy lobbying from the car industry and opposition from member states with significant automotive industries.

Several senior politicians have proposed PHEVs as a potential “compromise” option to include in the legislation.

An independent energy economics expert, who was unaffiliated with the study, called the analysis a “highly valuable addition” after a long period in which segments of the car industry claimed there was too little data to properly evaluate actual CO2 output.

“These findings show, without question, that the difference between official and real-world PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions is significantly greater than for gasoline or conventional vehicles,” the expert stated. “All policy changes concerning PHEVs should be made with utmost caution and considering that evidence.”