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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."