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Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". But context is everything.

During that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies above the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift of Stance & Settled Debates

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid which was tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and is still his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is among those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people by which youths can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea would be to announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again by warning a return to a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. First, he thinks any customs union agreement is now much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous sectors, including the environment.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has led British officials that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from Europe.

An Alarming Document & Strategic Considerations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It contains a single mention to Britain, found on a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the rise of nationalist movements.

However, instead of concluding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Echo from the Past

This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an effort to keep open the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Danger & A Prudent Reminder

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be prudent of him to recall the impact that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.